The Perfect Storm
How a changing climate threatens our favourite waves and beaches
Fresh research commissioned by Surfrider Australia reveals that some of our most famous beaches face the rapidly rising tide of climate change.
Researchers from Griffith University looked at iconic breaks, including Noosa, Burleigh Heads, North Narrabeen and Bells Beach to ask - ‘How will this affect the way we surf, swim and play on the coast?’
You might be asking: what’s new here? Science has told us for some time that a changing climate will have all kinds of negative impacts on coastal lifestyles… but it’s a conversation that often feels distant, something affecting far-off corners of the globe.
That’s where this research stands out. Diving beyond the figures and jargon, it focuses on the real-world, local impacts of extreme weather, sea level rise and shifting climate patterns on your local break.
Poor water quality on the Gold Coast, one of Australia’s most popular coastlines. Scenes like this could be more common according to the Griffith study. Photo courtesy of Andrew Shield.
Extreme Weather
While models can’t predict exactly where it will be raining in 20 years, what they do show with some degree of confidence is the increasing intensity of extreme weather events—when it rains, it pours!
Combine more severe storms (tropical cyclones, east coast lows and the like), increased risks of flood events with aging wastewater infrastructure and it’s a recipe for disaster—prolonged periods of poor water quality and time out of the ocean.
The record-breaking 2022 floods on Australia’s east coast gave us a very real glimpse into this potential future. Reports during the disaster pointed to brownish water contaminated with raw sewerage and elevated risk of ear and eye infections. Not a very inviting line-up to look forward to…
Extreme Weather
As oceans rise, up to 66cm by 2090 according to business-as-usual scenarios, so too does the risk of coastal erosion and changes to the way some of our favourite waves break. This is not a threat for future generations of surfers but one that is already destroying beloved breaks. Narrabeen is a prime example where erosion and the vertical seawall built in response have disrupted the natural flow of sand and wave-breaking patterns that made this spot famous.
While every beach will respond differently to changes in sea level rise, researchers suggest that reef breaks and low-tide surf spots are most likely to be affected. In some places, you could see fatter, slower waves while others become less consistent or don’t break altogether. The findings single out Noosa, North Narrabeen and Bells Beach as some high-profile spots in the firing line.
The combination of rising sea levels, extreme weather and poor coastal planning has stollen the beach at Narrabeen (2022). Photo Courtesy of Ian Bird.
Changing climate patterns are predicted to impact the consistency and reliability of surf spots. That could mean fewer mornings like this.
Shifting Climate Patterns
Coastal communities also face significant shifts in prevailing climate drivers. Researchers point to projected shifts in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Subtropical Ridge (STR). For most of us, these terms don’t mean much—but put simply, these are some of the key drivers of consistent surf along the east coast of Australia (including breaks like Burleigh Heads, The Pass and North Narrabeen).
For surfers and beachgoers, some worrying trends include:
As weather systems shift southward, there is the potential for prevailing south swells to be replaced by smaller easterly patterns. This impact is particularly pronounced in winter months at south-facing breaks.
Despite the increased intensity, the storms and weather systems that drive swells are forecast to become fewer and far between, impacting the consistency and reliability of breaks.
Warmer oceans combined with runoff from agriculture and industry could expand the geographic range and frequency of harmful algal blooms, endangering public safety at the beach.
While it’s important to note that the effects of these shifts on individual breaks are complex, the key here is that this research is based on projections, and we just don’t know how the changing climate could disrupt the coast—which is a scary prospect for those who rely on the ocean for fitness, mental wellbeing and community.
For the small businesses and communities that rely on tourism and clean oceans, it’s an existential threat. Especially, when you consider that the ocean contributes more than AUD$69 billion to the Australian economy annually.
The truth is we can’t afford not to take action on the climate.
Fortunately, there’s still time to alter
this trajectory and protect the coast
for future generations.
Nature-Based Solutions
The natural environment has evolved over millions of years to create flexible, effective ways of preserving the coast. Integrating this natural wisdom is crucial to help us adapt to the changing climate, restore important ecosystems and protect coastal communities. This includes solutions like dune restoration and seagrass revegetation. This process must begin with further research and analysis of surf breaks and what solutions are best suited to each break.
These stand in stark contrast to the more brutalist, inflexible measures (like concrete vertical seawalls) that cost coastal communities and destroy beaches. Read more about the perils of employing 19th-century engineering to address a 21st-century problem – The Colloroy-Narrabeen Seawall.
Further Studies
The experts also stress the need for further studies on the localised impacts of climate change so that we can make informed decisions about how to protect surf breaks and the coastal ecosystem.
